IPO Speed Up The Release Of The A Stock Market Trend

From the beginning of the year to more than half a month, the number of IPO publisher has reached 31, basically keeping the rhythm of IPO of 3 companies a day. In addition, A shares have been falling down in recent days, and the acceleration of IPO issuance has once again become a hot topic in the market.

In this regard, the industry generally believe that the recent decline in the A share market is affected by many factors, such as "capital chain, annual joint points and other reasons, should not over enlarge the impact of IPO speed increase."

In the long run,

Financing helps enterprises improve their performance and support economic growth, which is an important driving force for the pformation and upgrading of the real economy.

The impact of IPO issuing rhythm on A share market is not significant.

From the beginning of the year to more than half a month, the number of IPO publisher has reached 31, basically keeping the rhythm of IPO of 3 companies per day, and in recent days, A shares have been down in a row. The acceleration of IPO issuance has become a hot topic in the market again. Li Guanglei

For a long time, China's economy has relied on investment to stimulate growth. IPO has provided the financing convenience for the real economy. It can be called an antidote for financing, but it is "three poisons of drugs". The acceleration of supply by IPO will also lead to the bloodletting effect on the stock market funds.

The industry generally believes that the recent decline in the A share market is affected by many factors. "There are various reasons such as capital chain and annual joint points, which should not overamplify the impact of IPO speed increase".

In the long run, IPO financing helps enterprises improve their performance and support economic growth, which is an important driving force for the pformation and upgrading of the real economy.

The impact of IPO issuing rhythm on A share market is not significant.

Statistics show that in 2016, a total of 227 enterprises were successful IPO, a record high of nearly 5 years.

In the week of from January 9 to 13, 2017, 15 new shares were purchased, with an average of 3 new shares issued each day.

IPO "barrier lake" pressure is gradually released, from the middle of last year, about 800 enterprises accepted the first place "high", now reduced to more than 600.

IPO financing will help enterprises to improve their performance and support economic growth. At present, the financing structure of CITIC accounts for a large proportion, the debt ratio of enterprises is high, and increasing equity financing is an inevitable trend, which will help to get rid of the real capital.

There are two main reasons for the increase in new shares. First, the recent pace of IPO is accelerating, which has a negative impact on the scarcity of new shares. The two is that during the downward trend of market valuation, the valuation center of new shares is also affected, which has a negative cycle with the performance of small and medium capitalization stocks in recent years, that is, the performance of small and medium capitalization stocks is weak and the market is suppressed.

It is expected that the poor performance of new shares will in turn affect the performance of small and medium capitalization stocks.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that the falling market is affected by many factors. "There are various reasons such as capital chain and annual joint points, which should not overamplify the impact of IPO speed increase".

Yang Delong analysis said.

However, Xun Yugen, chief strategist of Haitong Securities, said in the latest research report that the issue of IPO was accelerated in recent years, and that the supply and demand of capital were tight and the new rate of return fell.

Although in the long run, the scale of IPO financing is relatively small and its impact on the market is neutral. However, from a small point of view, the impact of short-term IPO issuance on the market is not small.

It is proposed to speed up the issuance of information management products and control refinancing to achieve a new balance.

In this regard, Yang Delong believes that the normalization of IPO is the direction of the capital market should be pursued, but there are still many systems in China's stock market is not perfect, investors have not yet fully formed value.

Logic, in this case, the normalization of IPO needs supporting policy to create a favorable environment for capital market.

In direct financing, the current debt financing has developed too fast, and the overall social leverage (total debt /GDP) has risen rapidly, rising from 170% in 2008 to 235.7% in 2014, which is not high compared with international comparison. However, the leverage ratio of the enterprise sector is as high as 123.1%, which is higher than the international level.

The heavy debt burden is a drag on the long-term development of enterprises. Therefore, it is urgent for enterprises to change their financing structure and take more equity financing in direct financing so as to solve the difficulty of financing the real economy.

Xun Yugen believes that IPO will help improve the performance of financing enterprises and support the growth of real economy.

IPO can enhance the popularity of listed companies, establish a standardized management and financial system, and directly get financing to expand production.

IPO provides financing convenience for listed companies. After the completion of IPO, enterprises can refinance through issuance and rights issue. In the past 3 years, the refinancing scale of the tier one market is over 90%. The listed companies are more likely to get sustained low-cost financing than non-listed company, which not only supports the rapid expansion of enterprises, but also helps to reduce financial costs.

Looking back at the track of market operation, we can find that the impact of IPO issuing rhythm on A share market is not significant.

When the number of IPO publisher and the amount of financing increased, the market rose frequently. For example, from 2005 to 2007 bull market, the number of IPO publisher expanded from 14 to 126 a year, the amount of financing extended from 5 billion 300 million yuan to 477 billion 100 million yuan. During 2014 to 2015 bull market, the number of IPO publisher increased from 125 to 223 each year, and the amount of financing expanded from 66 billion 900 million yuan to 157 billion 600 million yuan.

When the number of IPO publisher and the amount of financing declined, the market was mostly in the down stage. For example, from 1993 to 1995, the number of IPO publisher decreased from 107 to 21 a year, and the amount of financing decreased from 13 billion yuan to 2 billion 100 million yuan. From 2011 to 2012, the number of IPO publisher decreased from 281 to 155 per year, and the amount of financing decreased from 281 billion yuan to 103 billion 400 million yuan.

When the number of IPO distributors and the amount of financing is relatively stable, the market is mostly in the stage of oscillation. For example, from 2002 to 2003, the number of IPO publisher decreased from 68 to 67 per year, and the amount of financing decreased from 48 billion yuan to 47 billion 200 million yuan.

"Generally speaking, the IPO supply basically keeps a dynamic balance. The rhythm of IPO issuance is more closely related to the A share market. In the bull market, IPO is issued more, IPO is less issued in the bear market, and the rhythm of IPO issuance is stable in the oscillation market."

Insiders said.

Xun Yugen believes that in the long run, the IPO issue has little effect on the A shares.

The market worried that IPO caused the blood pumping effect because of relatively simple and simple logic. IPO issuance increased stock supply. If there was no incremental capital inflow and the market remained unchanged, the share price tended to decline.

However, this logic ignores that the scale of IPO financing is too small, and it has little impact on market funds.

From the perspective of supply and demand of A shares, capital inflows mainly come from public offering funds, private equity funds, bank card pfer, insurance premium, Shanghai Stock Exchange and financing balance. Capital outflows mainly come from IPO, refinancing, industrial capital reduction and paction taxes and fees.

In 2016, IPO, refinancing, industrial capital reduction and paction taxes and fees were 149 billion 600 million yuan, 16967 billion yuan, 114 billion yuan, and 378 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 6.4%, 72.6%, 4.9% and 16.2% of the annual outflow of funds. Relatively speaking, the impact of IPO on the capital side is relatively small, so that IPO issuance will not change the market trend in the long run.

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